Asia and China container trade in 2025: what the shipping market means for global logistics decisions

Instead of fixed “X days” assumptions, move to scenario‑based planning:

• Define **three lead‑time scenarios** per lane: optimistic, realistic, worst case (including rerouting and blank sailings).
• Map **SKUs by criticality**:
• A‑items (high value / no‑stock risk) → higher safety stock or dual‑lane options.
• B/C‑items → more flexible on lead time, lower buffers.
• Where possible, **split shipments**: one batch via faster/more reliable routes, the rest on cheaper capacity.
• Use **nearby regional hubs** (e.g. Singapore, Port Klang) for buffer inventory instead of holding everything at origin.
• Review **reorder points and safety stocks** every time your average transit time shifts by more than 10–15%.

Three areas cause most unpleasant surprises:

• **Demurrage & detention**
• Check free days at POL/POD, storage tariffs after free time, and conditions for extension.
• Negotiate in advance during tendering, not once containers are already stuck.
• **Bunker and emergency surcharges**
• Clarify which surcharges are **fixed vs variable**, and how often they can be adjusted.
• Ask for clear triggers for EBS, PSS, war risk, congestion, etc.
• **Liability and force majeure**
• Understand what happens during disruptions: who pays for rerouting, additional handling, or extra days at sea.

Have your freight forwarder or legal team review a **sample bill of lading + quotation** and highlight each cost line before you sign anything.

The key is controlled complexity, not chaos:

• Start with **1–2 product families**, not your whole catalog.
• Design a **simple lane architecture**, e.g.:
• Components from Vietnam → assembly in China → export to EU/US; or
• Dual‑sourcing: one supplier in China + one in Vietnam/Thailand for the same SKU.
• Standardize **Incoterms and documentation** across suppliers so your operations team isn’t managing 10 different models.
• Use **one lead 3PL/freight forwarder** to orchestrate cross‑border flows instead of many small local providers.
• Measure success on 3 KPIs: **lead‑time stability, landed cost per unit, and stock‑out rate**. If all three improve or stay stable, you’re structuring friendshoring correctly.

You can’t stop blank sailings, but you can reduce their damage:

• **Diversify by carrier and alliance**, especially on critical lanes (e.g. at least two service options China–USWC or China–EU).
• Ask your forwarder for **visibility on planned blank sailings** 4–6 weeks ahead and map which sailings your bookings use.
• For time‑sensitive goods, **ship earlier in the cycle** or split volumes over two consecutive sailings.
• Build **standard operating procedures**: what happens if cargo is rolled (priority rebooking, alternative ports, potential mode change).
• For must‑arrive‑by‑date shipments, consider **premium or guaranteed space products** on a portion of your volume.

Smaller volumes don’t mean no leverage, but you need to be strategic:

• **Bundle lanes and volumes** with one or two core forwarders instead of scattering shipments across many.
• Be **predictable**: share realistic forecasts; forwarders give better terms to shippers who plan.
• Focus negotiations on **what hurts you most**: D&D terms, free days, schedule reliability, or flexibility on cut‑off times.
• Accept that you may not get the absolute lowest rate, but push for **strong service SLAs** (communication, alternatives during disruptions, documentation accuracy).
• Use **tenders or mini‑bids** at least annually to benchmark offers, even if you stay with the same partner afterward.